As China accelerates its military buildup, the United States faces an urgent question: Is America prepared for a high-stakes conflict? China’s defense capabilities have surged in recent years, with its massive state-backed production in shipbuilding, aircraft, and missile development now rivaling U.S. capacity. This article explores the strengths and vulnerabilities of China’s rapidly expanding defense industrial base, contrasting it with America’s declining readiness and limited production capabilities. Here’s how these developments could shape the balance of power in a potential conflict.
China’s path to a “world-class” military
Chinese President Xi Jinping has aggressively pursued the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” central to which is creating a formidable military capable of challenging the United States. While economic challenges have surfaced within China—ranging from high unemployment to mounting government debt—these setbacks have not slowed its defense spending. Since 2021, China’s military industrial base has rapidly expanded, producing over 400 fighter jets and 20 warships, doubling its missile inventory, and launching significant advancements in its nuclear arsenal. A single Chinese shipyard can now produce more ships than all U.S. shipyards combined.
This industrial capacity, driven by China’s major state-owned enterprises like the Aviation Industry Corporation of China and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, has made China the world’s largest shipbuilder and enabled it to produce advanced fighter jets, stealth bombers, and ballistic missiles at an unprecedented rate. China’s top defense companies now rival American giants like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, making it a genuine contender in military production.
Naval dominance: China’s advantage at sea
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has undergone an extraordinary transformation, emerging as the world’s largest navy. China’s massive shipbuilding capacity allows it to produce corvettes, destroyers, and aircraft carriers at a rate that the United States cannot match. For instance, the Fujian, China’s newest aircraft carrier, can carry up to 70 aircraft, including advanced fighters and antisubmarine helicopters, and is equipped with an electromagnetic catapult launch system, increasing its operational range and flexibility.
Despite having a greater number of ships, China’s navy is not without limitations. U.S. naval forces generally have superior firepower, as American ships carry more missiles per vessel and have more advanced nuclear-powered submarines. However, China’s advantage in shipbuilding means it could quickly replace losses in a prolonged conflict, a crucial capability that the U.S. lacks due to its slower and under-resourced shipbuilding infrastructure.
Air superiority and missile advancements
China’s advancements are not limited to naval forces; its aerial and missile capabilities are expanding rapidly. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China now produces a vast array of military aircraft, including advanced fighter jets, reconnaissance aircraft, and drones. By 2023, China had fielded over 2,000 fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets, positioning it closer to the U.S., which operates around 3,350 advanced fighters. China’s defense companies have also ramped up drone production, adding kamikaze drones to their arsenal, which have been deployed in exercises around Taiwan.
The pace of missile development is another area where China outpaces the U.S. Chinese companies have dramatically increased their production capacity, doubling their inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles and introducing the DF-17, a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of striking U.S. bases in the Indo-Pacific. These missiles enable China to threaten both U.S. and allied forces in the region, including bases in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. By contrast, the U.S. has faced delays in developing hypersonic capabilities, lagging behind its Chinese counterparts.
China has also built the world’s largest standing army, with more tanks and artillery pieces than the United States. Furthermore, China has intensified its focus on space, conducting 67 space launches in 2023, its highest number yet. China’s space capabilities extend to satellite tracking, antisatellite weaponry, and surveillance systems capable of tracking car-sized objects on Earth. With an expanding array of counter-space technologies, China could disrupt or even disable U.S. satellite networks, giving it a significant advantage in a conflict that spans space and cyberspace.
America’s defense production limitations
The rapid expansion of China’s military capacity has exposed critical vulnerabilities in America’s own defense industrial base. While the U.S. leads in certain high-tech areas, such as nuclear submarines and integrated defense systems, its defense production processes are not equipped for rapid or large-scale mobilization. U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has stated that “China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States,” yet America’s production capabilities are strained and limited in scope.
America’s defense procurement and contracting processes, designed more for peacetime than wartime efficiency, have become a significant impediment. With timelines that can span a decade for major defense projects, the U.S. faces persistent delays in producing essential equipment, such as guided-missile destroyers and Virginia-class submarines. Additionally, the U.S. lacks sufficient munitions for a sustained conflict; in simulations of a Taiwan Strait conflict, for instance, America’s long-range missile inventory would be exhausted within a week.
Supply chain fragility and workforce shortages
A major challenge to the U.S. defense industry is its fragile supply chain. Critical components for defense manufacturing, such as advanced microelectronics, solid rocket motors, and specialized materials, are in limited supply. Compounding this problem is China’s control over numerous raw materials essential for U.S. defense equipment, including metals and minerals crucial for night-vision goggles, tank parts, and communication systems. In a conflict, China could cut off access to these materials, hampering U.S. production capacity.
Workforce shortages in the U.S. shipbuilding industry further restrict America’s defense capabilities. Skilled labor shortages have caused production delays for critical naval vessels, including frigates and submarines, with many projects years behind schedule due to an inadequate workforce. Unless the U.S. addresses these shortages, it risks falling further behind in producing the ships and other equipment necessary to sustain its military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Mobilizing for defense
To counterbalance China’s military capabilities, the United States needs a coordinated national effort to revitalize its defense production capabilities. Following models from World War II, a new presidential initiative could integrate various federal departments, the private sector, and defense manufacturers, streamlining contracting processes and accelerating production timelines. A high-level body, similar to Roosevelt’s War Production Board, could centralize oversight, expedite manufacturing, and set clear priorities for defense production.
Additionally, investing in training and education programs for skilled labor in shipbuilding, electronics, and other defense-related fields would help expand America’s production workforce. Congress can also support multi-year funding for essential munitions, incentivizing companies to invest in long-term production capacity. Reinvigorating U.S. commercial shipyards would not only boost military readiness but also strengthen the U.S. economy by creating jobs and fostering technological advancements.
Conclusion
China’s defense surge is reshaping the global military balance. While America still holds technological and strategic advantages, the speed and scale of China’s defense production are putting pressure on the U.S. to rethink its readiness. Without significant investment and reform, the U.S. risks ceding its strategic edge in the Indo-Pacific to China.
The path forward is clear: if the U.S. is to match China’s pace and sustain its global influence, it must mobilize resources, streamline production, and develop a more robust defense workforce. A renewed focus on creating an “arsenal of democracy” for the modern era could equip America to meet the challenges of a potential conflict with China and preserve stability in the Indo-Pacific.
