The U.S.-China relationship is often framed as a rivalry spiraling toward inevitable confrontation. However, this view, according to Zhou Bo, a Chinese foreign policy expert, is both misleading and dangerous. In a recent essay, Zhou argues that, despite tensions, fatalism—the belief that conflict between the two powers is unavoidable—is unnecessary and counterproductive. Through careful management and a willingness to engage, Zhou asserts that the U.S. and China can maintain a stable and mutually beneficial relationship. Here’s a closer look at the current dynamics, the risks of fatalism, and what both sides can do to avoid a headlong collision.
Fatalism in U.S.-China relations: A self-fulfilling prophecy?
As of 2024, both American and Chinese leaders view this as a “decisive decade” for the U.S.-China rivalry. The Biden administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy emphasizes the need to compete with China to preserve U.S. influence. Meanwhile, China’s leaders see this rivalry as forced upon them by a U.S. determined to maintain global primacy, with China positioned to “dare to fight” if necessary. This framing of the relationship as an existential struggle fosters a fatalistic mindset, suggesting that conflict is inevitable.
Zhou Bo, however, argues that this perception is not only misleading but risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. While Western narratives often portray China as an aggressive, revisionist power, Zhou asserts that China is deeply integrated into the existing global order and has largely acted as a stabilizing force. For example, he points out that China has joined nearly every major international organization and benefits from the global economic system established by the West post-World War II. Far from trying to upend the world order, China seeks to modify it to better reflect its interests and those of other developing nations, not to replace it entirely.
The new “cold war” narrative and its limitations
Comparisons between the U.S.-China rivalry and the Cold War are increasingly common, yet Zhou cautions that this analogy fails to capture the unique complexities of the modern relationship. Unlike the Cold War, where two ideological camps vied for global influence, the current U.S.-China dynamic is between two powers without uniformly hostile blocs. Even U.S. allies often have deep economic ties with China, which complicates Washington’s efforts to forge a solid anti-China alliance. The U.S. has had some success with security partnerships like AUKUS (a trilateral pact between the U.S., U.K., and Australia) and the Quad (an alliance of the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), but these remain limited in scope and do not constitute a cohesive anti-China coalition.
Zhou argues that the Cold War analogy is flawed because today’s multipolar world allows countries to adopt a more nuanced stance. Many nations, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, prefer to avoid choosing sides, aiming to maximize their economic and security benefits by engaging with both China and the United States. The zero-sum mentality of the Cold War simply doesn’t align with the interdependence that characterizes today’s global economy.
Restoring dialogue: “Trust but talk”
One key lesson from the Cold War, Zhou notes, is the importance of continuous dialogue—even when trust is limited. During the latter half of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union maintained regular communication channels, reducing the risks of misunderstanding and unintended escalation. Zhou suggests that a similar approach, which he calls “trust but talk,” is essential in managing U.S.-China relations. He proposes that both sides engage in continuous dialogue, even without full trust, as a way to prevent crises and establish mutual understanding on contentious issues.
Recent years have seen setbacks to this type of engagement, especially with military-to-military communication largely severed after Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan. Although some talks have resumed, including the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks, Zhou believes that much more needs to be done. Both sides should expand crisis management tools, such as the hotline established in 2008, and encourage direct communication among military personnel. This approach would reduce the risks of accidental conflict, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea.
Establishing guardrails
The South China Sea remains one of the most contentious points in U.S.-China relations. China’s expansive territorial claims are disputed by its neighbors and challenged by the U.S. Navy’s regular patrols to uphold freedom of navigation. This tension has led to numerous close encounters, with the Pentagon reporting over 180 “coercive and risky” interactions between Chinese and U.S. aircraft from 2021 to 2023 alone.
Zhou emphasizes the importance of guardrails, or confidence-building measures, to prevent such encounters from escalating into broader conflicts. While the U.S. wants to establish technical standards, such as minimum distances between vessels, China views such talks as attempts to preserve a status quo that favors American interests. Despite these differences, both sides could agree on basic rules for managing interactions in disputed areas. Such measures would benefit both countries by reducing the risks of inadvertent escalation and demonstrating a commitment to peaceful engagement.
Taiwan: The red line for China
Taiwan remains the single most sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations. China views Taiwan as a core national interest and has made it clear that it considers any move toward Taiwanese independence as a potential trigger for military action. In recent years, the U.S. has increased support for Taiwan, accelerating arms sales and conducting military training exercises aimed at bolstering the island’s defenses. Meanwhile, China has increased its military presence around Taiwan, flying more warplanes across the Taiwan Strait’s median line, a buffer that previously helped maintain stability.
Zhou warns that Taiwan is the only issue likely to drag the U.S. and China into direct conflict. He argues that while the U.S. should support Taiwan’s security, it must also be careful not to undermine the “one-China policy,” which has served as the basis for peaceful cross-strait relations. China has refrained from setting a deadline for reunification, and, according to Zhou, peaceful unification remains a possibility if the U.S. does not provoke Beijing by pushing Taiwan toward independence. By respecting each other’s red lines on Taiwan, both nations can avoid the worst-case scenario of a military clash.
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Opportunities for cooperation
Despite the tensions, Zhou identifies several areas where the U.S. and China could collaborate. Cyberspace, artificial intelligence (AI), and nuclear safety are all domains where both powers share mutual interests. Zhou suggests that both countries establish boundaries for cyber operations, including agreements not to target critical infrastructure. In outer space, they could negotiate treaties to prevent the militarization of space, thereby avoiding a new arena of rivalry.
AI and nuclear safety present additional opportunities. At a summit in 2023, Presidents Biden and Xi agreed to establish a U.S.-China dialogue on AI, which could help mitigate the risks of autonomous weapons and ensure human oversight over nuclear command systems. Zhou sees these efforts as essential steps toward preventing new forms of conflict and establishing norms in areas of rapid technological advancement. By collaborating on these issues, both nations can demonstrate a commitment to global stability while managing their competition in other areas.
Avoiding fatalism and fostering cautious optimism
Zhou concludes with a caution against the perils of fatalism. While the narrowing power gap between the U.S. and China intensifies competition, it also makes cooperation on shared global challenges more critical. He highlights the Middle East as an example: both nations support a two-state solution in Israel-Palestine and share concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Zhou believes that a pragmatic approach, characterized by limited but meaningful cooperation, is possible and preferable to mutual isolation.
Ultimately, Zhou urges both nations to approach their rivalry with a balanced view—not as a zero-sum contest, but as a complex relationship where competition and cooperation coexist. Through consistent dialogue, respect for red lines, and targeted cooperation, Zhou argues that the U.S. and China can resist the pull of fatalism and avoid a descent into confrontation that neither side desires.
Conclusion
The U.S.-China relationship is complex, marked by intense competition but also opportunities for meaningful engagement. Zhou Bo’s essay challenges the notion that conflict is inevitable, advocating instead for a balanced approach that prioritizes dialogue, guardrails, and strategic cooperation. As the world’s most important bilateral relationship, U.S.-China dynamics will shape global stability for decades to come. Avoiding the trap of fatalism and embracing a pragmatic, level-headed approach could ensure that this competition remains managed, stable, and ultimately beneficial for both nations and the world.
