As China’s influence expands, a new informal alliance of authoritarian states—comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—is unsettling the global balance of power. These countries, each pursuing their own agendas, have coalesced into what some analysts call an “axis of chaos.” Without formal treaties or public commitments, this network advances China’s global ambitions and distracts the United States from its primary goal of countering Beijing’s rise. By leveraging its relationships with these autocratic partners, China is creating a multi-front challenge for the U.S. that could overextend American military and diplomatic resources, paving the way for a new era of instability and asymmetric warfare.
Pragmatic partnerships without formal alliances
The relationships between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are not bound by traditional alliances or shared ideologies. Instead, they reflect a pragmatic arrangement where each partner contributes to undermining U.S. influence while preserving the flexibility to pursue its own interests. China benefits from this arrangement without bearing the risks or constraints of a formal alliance. This strategic ambiguity allows Beijing to align with disruptive regimes while maintaining plausible deniability, distancing itself from their more aggressive actions on the global stage.
Russia: China’s essential but risky partner
China’s relationship with Russia, particularly in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, has become the cornerstone of this axis. The economic lifeline that China provides has been instrumental in sustaining Russia through sanctions. Chinese companies have supplied Russia with more than $9 billion in “dual-use” goods—technology with both civilian and military applications—enabling Moscow to sidestep the economic restrictions imposed by the West. These goods include electronics, drones, and other essential components used in Russia’s military efforts.
China’s exports now make up around 38% of all goods entering Russia, cementing Beijing’s role as a key economic partner. Yet, Beijing’s support is calibrated to avoid direct involvement in the conflict; it has refrained from sending overt military aid and publicly maintains a position of neutrality, even as it shields Russia in international forums and indirectly supports its war effort. This careful balance allows China to keep Russia as a strategic partner in Europe while reducing the risk of global backlash that could harm its economic interests elsewhere.
Iran: A destabilizing force in the Middle East
Iran is another critical partner within this axis, contributing to regional instability in ways that indirectly serve China’s goals. The two countries formalized their ties with a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2021, which included a 25-year agreement for China to purchase up to 90% of Iran’s oil. This arrangement supplies Iran with much-needed revenue in the face of sanctions, while providing China with a stable source of energy. China’s support of Iran strengthens its ability to act as a disruptive force in the Middle East, challenging American allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia and forcing the U.S. to allocate resources to the region rather than the Indo-Pacific.
Iran’s influence extends through proxy forces like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and its consistent provocations, such as threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, can destabilize global oil markets. Joint military exercises in the Gulf of Oman between China, Russia, and Iran further underscore the growing depth of China’s support for Tehran’s regional ambitions. Through Iran, China gains influence in the Middle East without committing its own military resources, drawing American attention away from Asia and testing the limits of Washington’s military reach.
North Korea: The volatile disruptor
North Korea’s role in this axis offers China a unique tool for maintaining pressure on the U.S. and its allies in East Asia. China and North Korea renewed their 1961 mutual defense treaty in 2021, securing a strategic partnership that includes economic support and occasional military coordination. While China officially opposes North Korea’s nuclear program, it continues to facilitate trade with the regime, reinforcing Kim Jong-un’s ability to resist international pressure.
North Korea’s frequent missile tests and threats to U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan create persistent security concerns, forcing Washington to maintain a strong military presence on the Korean Peninsula. By enabling North Korea’s provocations, China forces the U.S. to commit resources to East Asia, limiting its capacity to counter Beijing’s broader regional ambitions. North Korea’s unpredictability makes it a valuable but dangerous ally for China, as its actions can destabilize the region without directly implicating Beijing.
A multifront threat: China’s strategic benefit
By aligning with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, China is crafting a multi-front strategy that could stretch U.S. capabilities beyond their limits. The United States, structured to manage one large-scale conflict at a time, could be overwhelmed if crises erupted simultaneously in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. In this scenario, the U.S. might be forced to allocate resources across three theaters, weakening its capacity to respond effectively in any one location.
For example, a Chinese move on Taiwan could coincide with Russian escalation in Ukraine, Iranian provocations in the Gulf, or North Korean aggression on the Korean Peninsula. Such simultaneous challenges would strain American military resources and complicate Washington’s ability to maintain alliance commitments. China could then advance its objectives in the Indo-Pacific, calculating that the U.S., already overstretched, would be unable to mount a coordinated defense of Taiwan.
This multifront threat is made more complex by the economic and technological exchanges between China and its partners. China’s access to Russian natural resources and Iranian oil through direct trade agreements means it can sustain its economy even if Western sanctions disrupt its traditional supply chains. Furthermore, technology transfers from Russia enhance China’s military capabilities, particularly in missile technology and electronic warfare, giving Beijing a significant advantage in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict.
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Technology sharing and military capabilities
The partnerships within this axis also encompass extensive military and technology sharing. China has exported surveillance systems, satellite technology, and dual-use goods to Russia and Iran, enabling these countries to modernize their forces and enhance their offensive capabilities. Russia, in turn, supplies China with advanced weaponry and strategic military insights, especially in areas where the U.S. has a technological edge. This technology exchange boosts China’s regional power and further solidifies its influence within the axis.
Additionally, Iran has benefitted from Chinese technology in its missile and drone programs, which it uses to threaten U.S. allies across the Middle East. Chinese surveillance and cyber capabilities assist Iranian operations by providing intelligence tools and electronic warfare capabilities, amplifying Tehran’s capacity to disrupt U.S. influence in the region. These partnerships make each member of the axis more self-sufficient and better equipped to challenge the U.S. and its allies in their respective regions.
Washington’s challenge
To respond effectively, the United States must shift its perspective, treating this informal coalition not as a set of isolated threats, but as a coordinated challenge orchestrated by China. A key part of this strategy should involve holding Beijing accountable for the actions of its partners. Rather than focusing solely on individual sanctions against Chinese companies aiding Russia, the U.S. could impose broader sanctions on China as a way of linking Beijing’s support to the destabilizing actions of Russia, Iran, and North Korea. By connecting these allies’ provocations to China, Washington can pressure Beijing to reconsider the costs of its support.
Furthermore, the U.S. must deepen its alliances, both in Europe and Asia, to confront the unified threats posed by this axis. Strengthening NATO’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific and building partnerships with Southeast Asian nations would enhance regional security and deter China’s influence. Washington should encourage its allies to see China’s alignment with Russia, Iran, and North Korea as a shared threat that justifies more cohesive multilateral actions, including sanctions and security cooperation.
However, this strategy must avoid overly ideological framing. While these nations are autocracies, casting the conflict as a binary struggle between democracies and autocracies may alienate potential partners who are wary of choosing sides. Instead, the U.S. should emphasize shared security interests and regional stability, allowing a broader coalition of countries to align with American objectives without fully committing to an ideological stance. This approach allows Washington to build a wider network of allies while focusing on pragmatic security goals rather than ideological differences.
Avoiding escalation
While the U.S. must apply pressure on China, an aggressive approach risks driving these countries into a more formalized alliance. Instead, Washington should adopt a calibrated response that discourages Beijing’s cooperation with these regimes without escalating to outright confrontation. For instance, selectively imposing export controls on dual-use technology and tightening restrictions on strategic resources could limit China’s support for its allies without disrupting broader trade relationships.
Additionally, Washington can implement monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance with restrictions on technology transfers to China, Iran, and Russia, reducing the likelihood of indirect support for military applications. This balanced approach can reduce China’s incentives to strengthen ties with these regimes by demonstrating that such relationships carry economic and diplomatic consequences. By adopting a flexible and proportional response, the U.S. can deter further alignment among these states without risking a direct confrontation.
Conclusion
China’s “axis of chaos” represents a new and complex challenge to the U.S. and its allies, demanding a sophisticated response that addresses the collective threat posed by Beijing’s partnerships with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. By recognizing this network as a coordinated bloc rather than a collection of independent actors, Washington can formulate a cohesive strategy that strengthens alliances, imposes costs on China, and stabilizes regions prone to disruption.
Navigating this multipolar world requires a careful balance of deterrence and diplomacy. As the U.S. works to counter China’s influence, it must also prevent Beijing’s partners
from gaining too much leverage. This strategy of containment, tailored to the unique dynamics of China’s axis of chaos, offers a blueprint for managing the emerging geopolitical challenges of the 21st century.
